**AUD/USD Weekly Analysis: Consolidation Near 0.6500 as Australian and US Data Offers Mixed Signals**
*This article is based on content written by Yohay Elam at Forex Crunch, supplemented and expanded with relevant research and market analysis.*
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### Overview
The Australian Dollar (AUD) vs US Dollar (USD) currency pair, commonly known as AUD/USD, has seen another week of choppy performance, generally hovering near the 0.6500 mark. Currency traders and analysts have observed that both local and international economic releases have contributed to this indecisive movement, as conflicting signals make directional bets challenging. This consolidated analysis reviews the past week’s events, previews upcoming economic catalysts, and evaluates the technical outlook for AUD/USD.
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## Recap of Recent Price Action
– The AUD/USD began the week trading just above 0.6500, before making an attempt to break higher.
– Australian economic data, including inflation numbers and trade balance figures, painted a complex picture for investors.
– US data releases, led by jobs data and various Federal Reserve comments, added to the mixed landscape.
A period of consolidation and unpredictable spurts, rather than a clear trend, has defined trading, as neither bulls nor bears have been able to decisively win the tug-of-war.
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## Key Drivers of Recent AUD/USD Movement
### 1. Australian Economic Data
#### Inflation Dynamics
– Third-quarter inflation data from Australia came in softer than expected, with CPI rising 1.2 percent compared to the forecast 1.3 percent.
– Core inflation, a preferred measure for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), showed gradual easing, though remaining above the RBA’s 2–3 percent target band.
– Weaker inflation gave market participants further reason to believe that the RBA is unlikely to hike rates in the near term.
#### Trade Figures
– Australia’s trade surplus widened in the latest release, beating market expectations and highlighting continued demand for Australian commodities.
– However, declining iron ore prices and slowing global demand, particularly from China, kept optimism in check.
#### Retail Sales
– Australian retail sales registered a small uptick but fell short of market expectations, underlying concerns over domestic consumer spending.
– The data suggested households are conservative in expenditure, likely due to ongoing cost-of-living pressures and high borrowing costs.
### 2. US Economic Developments
#### US Federal Reserve Policy
– Federal Reserve officials reiterated their commitment to a data-dependent approach, maintaining the possibility of further monetary tightening if inflation re-accelerates.
– Recent commentary has hinted at a willingness to pause, as inflation data begins to move in the desired direction, though the possibility of another rate hike remains open.
#### US Employment Data
– US Nonfarm Payrolls data for the same week showed a robust addition of jobs, but with a slight uptick in the unemployment rate and lower average hourly earnings.
– This mixed labor market report offered little clarity on the Federal Reserve’s timeline for
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