Original article by: Adam Lemon
Source: DailyForex – Weekly Forex Forecast: 9th to 14th November 2025
URL: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/11/weekly-forex-forecast-09th-to-14th-november-2025/236712
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Title: Weekly Forex Forecast and Technical Outlook – November 9 to 14, 2025
The foreign exchange market enters the second week of November with notable momentum across several major currency pairs. Differing monetary policies, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment continue to sway price action. This forecast examines current technical and fundamental setups for several key currency pairs, while highlighting potential trading strategies for the coming week.
Market Overview
– Recent U.S. economic data has shown strength, reinforcing the expectation that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated.
– The Bank of England has recently held its rate, signaling a dovish bias that continues to pressure the Pound.
– The Euro remains under pressure due to stagnant economic data and cautious tones from the European Central Bank.
– Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar continue to move in response to global risk sentiment and Chinese data.
Key Economic Calendar Events (November 9 – November 14, 2025)
Watch for these upcoming events that may influence volatility:
– Tuesday: UK Unemployment Rate, German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
– Wednesday: U.S. Core Inflation Rate, Retail Sales
– Thursday: RBA Governor’s Speech, Eurozone Industrial Production
– Friday: U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Each of these releases has the potential to trigger short-term moves in the respective currencies. Inflation data out of the United States, in particular, is likely to sharply impact USD pairs.
Technical Analysis Summary
EUR/USD – Euro Continues Downward Grind
The EUR/USD pair remains in a clear long-term bearish channel. The failure to break resistance levels near 1.0800 last week suggests limited upside, while bearish continuation patterns on the daily chart indicate further downside potential.
Key Levels:
– Resistance: 1.0800, followed by 1.0880 if there’s a surprise reversal
– Support: 1.0650, then 1.0550 as the next target for bears
Technical Setup:
– Price is consistently trading below the 50-day SMA
– Bearish momentum remains intact on the Relative Strength Index (RSI)
– Weekly close below 1.0700 confirms renewed selling pressure
Strategy:
– Favor short positions on rallies toward 1.0750–1.0780
– Target a move down toward 1.0600 in the medium term
– Use stop-loss above 1.0810 to manage risk
GBP/USD – Sterling Faces Headwinds
GBP/USD saw moderate selling pressure last week after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged and emphasized dovish forward guidance. Although the pair remains above its October low, the outlook remains bearish unless there is a strong catalyst for upside.
Key Levels:
– Resistance: 1.2350, followed by 1.2420
– Support: 1.2150, with further downside possible toward 1.2050
Technical Setup:
– Price remains below its 200-day moving average
– MACD histogram shows increasing negative momentum
– RSI pointing downward from the 50 level, suggesting more weakness
Strategy:
– Look for shorting opportunities below 1.2300
– Downside target: 1.2100 in the short term
– Break and close below 1.2150 opens the path to 1.2050
USD/JPY – Yen Under Pressure Despite Intervention Risk
USD/JPY continues to push higher amid wide rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Although there are concerns over possible intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance to halt Yen weakness,
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.