Evening Update on EUR/USD – November 11, 2025
Original author: Economies.com
Rewritten and expanded by request
Overview of the Day’s EUR/USD Price Movement
On November 11, 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair exhibited a relatively restrained performance during the U.S. trading session. The pair hovered near its opening levels, showing limited directional bias as it stabilized just below significant technical resistance levels. Despite intraday fluctuations, the Euro failed to break through key resistance zones, which continues to limit bullish momentum in the short-term charts.
The currency pair has remained in a consolidation phase for most of the session, with the market appearing indecisive ahead of key macroeconomic data releases expected later this week. Expectations of monetary policy decisions and economic indicators from both Europe and the United States are keeping traders cautious and volume subdued.
Price Behavior and Technical Analysis
– Throughout the session, EUR/USD attempted to move higher, aiming to test the resistance near the 1.0780 region. However, each bullish attempt was met with selling pressure, leading to repeated retractions from the highs.
– The pair is currently trading below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart, which indicates that the short-term trend still leans towards bearishness.
– The current price action is forming a bearish flag pattern, suggesting potential downward continuation if the pair breaks below the lower end of the channel formation.
– Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain below the neutral 50 level, offering further evidence of weak buying pressure.
Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
– 1.0700: Considered the near-term support. A break below this level could trigger increased selling momentum.
– 1.0665: A crucial horizontal level that historically acted as both support and resistance. Breaching this area would expose the pair to more downside pressure.
– 1.0620: The lowest support level monitored in the current technical framework. A break below could confirm a larger bearish continuation.
Resistance Levels:
– 1.0780: Immediate resistance where bullish attempts have consistently failed. Price action here needs to be monitored for any breakout or reversal signals.
– 1.0825: A higher resistance zone aligned with a previous high from a monthly close. Bulls must clear this level convincingly to regain upward momentum.
– 1.0890: A medium-term resistance level and potential area for bullish target measurements should an upside breakout occur.
Technical Indicators and Signals
1. Relative Strength Index (RSI):
– RSI for the four-hour time frame remains under 50, suggesting continued bearish pressure.
– No clear divergence is observed, which implies the downtrend remains intact.
2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
– The MACD line remains below the signal line, validating ongoing bearish momentum across intraday time frames.
– Slight histogram recovery was detected during the New York session but not enough to confirm a reversal.
3. Stochastic Oscillator:
– The indicator remains in oversold territory but has yet to provide a bullish crossover signal.
– Traders need to observe for a reversal confirmation before trusting any bullish bias from this indicator.
4. Moving Averages:
– The 50-period EMA currently acts as short-term resistance around the 1.0775 mark.
– The 100-period EMA, located higher at approximately 1.0820, is another point to monitor for potential trend reversal upon bullish attempts.
Fundamental Outlook
EUR/USD continues to be influenced by the diverging monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Although inflation in the Eurozone has been moderating, deferred expectations for interest rate cuts from the ECB are contributing to a lack of bullish follow-through in EUR/USD. On the other side, the Fed remains cautious in prematurely pivoting away from its high interest rate policy amid persistent inflation pressures in
Read more on EUR/USD trading.