**AUD/USD & GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: Major Events and Price Drivers**
*Based on the original analysis by Matt Weller, FOREX.com; supplemented with additional research and current market perspectives.*
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The upcoming week promises significant movement for the Australian and British currencies, with key domestic data releases and pivotal global events shaping price forecasts. The economic calendars in Australia and the United Kingdom are loaded with impactful reports, while global focus will remain squarely on US inflation dynamics and monetary policy expectations. This comprehensive outlook covers critical data points, technical analysis, and what traders should monitor as the AUD/USD and GBP/USD pairs approach major decision zones.
## AUD/USD: Anticipation Builds Around Australian Employment Figures
The Australian dollar has experienced volatile swings recently. After rebounding off multi-month lows, the AUD/USD remains sensitive to domestic and global developments.
### Key Australian Data to Watch
**Australian Labour Market Report (Thursday):**
– Economy is expected to add around 30k jobs in May.
– The unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 4 percent.
– Prior month’s results surprised to the downside, causing a brief selloff in the AUD.
– Strong numbers could provide tailwinds for the currency, while a major miss might reinforce expectations for potential Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts later in the year.
**Other Relevant Indicators:**
– NAB Business Confidence Index
– Westpac Consumer Sentiment
– Home loans and building approvals
### USD Influences Remain Paramount
While domestic data will move the dial, the overarching narrative around US markets and the Federal Reserve is equally, if not more, influential for AUD/USD.
**US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Wednesday):**
– Analysts project a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percent in both the headline and core CPI.
– Year-on-year headline inflation expected at 3.4 percent; core inflation at 3.5 percent.
– Any material surprise could reshape the market’s assumptions about the timing and magnitude of Fed rate cuts.
– Hotter-than-expected CPI may dampen risk appetite, limit AUD/USD upside, and boost the greenback.
**US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday):**
– No change to the federal funds rate is anticipated.
– Updated economic projections and the new “dot plot” will be scrutinized for clues regarding the outlook for rate cuts in 2024.
– Market currently expects one or two 25bps cuts from the Fed this year.
– Hawkish signals may overshadow strong Australian data, potentially capping AUD/USD rallies.
**Preview of US Retail Sales (Thursday):**
– Provides another look at US consumer strength.
– Strong sales would support USD against risk-sensitive currencies like AUD.
### Technical Analysis
– The AUD/USD pair has seen support near the 0.6600 region.
– Resistance looms around 0.6730 to 0.6750, in line with the 200-day moving average.
– Bull
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