**AUD/USD, GBP/USD Outlook: AU Jobs, UK Data Dump, US Inflation in Focus**
*By Matt Weller (Content adapted and expanded upon from Forex.com)*
The forex market is entering a critical phase for the AUD/USD and GBP/USD pairs as traders brace for a data-packed calendar featuring high-impact events from Australia, the UK, and the United States. Major economic readings, including Australian employment figures, UK labor market and GDP releases, and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), are set to offer crucial clues on the monetary policy paths for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Bank of England (BoE), and US Federal Reserve (Fed).
This analysis draws upon the original work of Matt Weller from Forex.com, integrating additional insights and context to provide a comprehensive, in-depth outlook. Below, we discuss the key factors in play, review recent price action, and detail the technical and fundamental setups for AUD/USD and GBP/USD.
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### Key Factors Shaping AUD/USD and GBP/USD
**For AUD/USD:**
– Australian employment data ahead
– Shifting RBA policy expectations
– China’s economic influence
– US inflation and Federal Reserve trajectory
**For GBP/USD:**
– UK labor market readings and GDP
– BoE rate cut expectations
– Political and fiscal uncertainty
– Impact of US inflation on global yields
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## AUD/USD: Bracing for Australian Jobs Data
AUD/USD has recently pulled back from multi-month highs as the US dollar has staged a modest recovery with expectations for a slightly less dovish Federal Reserve in 2024. The upcoming Australian employment report is critical as markets anticipate whether recent labor market resilience will keep the RBA sidelined or force a dovish recalibration.
### Australian Labor Market in Focus
The upcoming Australian jobs report, due Thursday, is arguably the top-tier data release for the AUD this week. It follows a softer-than-expected April print, which showed:
– Headline employment decreased by 6,600 jobs
– Unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1 percent from 3.9 percent in March
– Participation rate remained at a robust 66.7 percent
**Market Expectations for May:**
– Net employment change: +30,000 jobs
– Unemployment rate: 4.0 percent
– Participation rate: Unchanged at 66.7 percent
A solid jobs report would reaffirm the RBA’s cautious approach, as Australian policymakers have shown reluctance to signal imminent rate cuts despite moderate disinflation progress. Conversely, another disappointing reading could accelerate expectations for easing, pressuring the AUD.
### China’s Role as a Wildcard
As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s economic trajectory directly affects the Aussie dollar. While official stimulus pledges and some signs of stabilization are supportive, persistent concerns about property sector risks and flagging domestic demand could weigh on the AUD, especially if global risk appetite deteriorates.
### Technical Outlook for AUD/USD
Recent price action exhibits several critical technical features. Key levels include:
– 0.6700-0.6750: Near-term support zone, where buyers previously emerged
– 0.6600: Critical psychological and technical support, aligning with the 50-day moving average
– 0.6800-0.6850: Resistance area where rallies have stalled
**Technical Summary:**
– Momentum has slowed, and daily RSI is neutral around 50
– Bulls need to defend the 0.67 handle to maintain the uptrend structure
– A weekly close below 0.6600 would likely invite deeper retracement, possibly toward 0.6500
– Quick recovery above 0.6850 would resume the bullish outlook
**Key Risks for AUD/USD:**
– Stronger-than-expected US inflation data lifting the US dollar
– Downbeat Australian jobs print pushing RBA closer to a dovish pivot
– Negative headlines from China or
Read more on GBP/USD trading.