**USD/CAD Weekly Forex Outlook: Technical and Fundamental Perspectives**
*Adapted from article by ActionForex.com, with additional analysis and insights included.*
The USD/CAD currency pair saw a relatively stable performance last week, showing resilience with moderate bullish momentum. Despite a temporary dip to 1.3639, the pair quickly bounced back to close higher at 1.3765, suggesting that bulls are gradually regaining control. The technical setup indicates the possibility for further upside movement, although a decisive breakout remains to be confirmed.
This article presents a comprehensive overview of USD/CAD’s recent activity, key technical levels, and forward-looking fundamentals that could influence the currency pair in the coming weeks.
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### Weekly Overview: USD/CAD Price Developments
– USD/CAD started the previous week forming a minor pullback but remained within a relatively narrow trading range.
– The pair tested support at 1.3639 but quickly recovered, maintaining position above key short-term moving averages.
– The closing price of 1.3765 indicates buyers stepped in at lower levels, reinforcing bullish tone for the near term.
– Overall, price action signals continued consolidation within a larger bullish framework.
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### Technical Analysis: Chart Patterns and Indicators
Below is a breakdown of the technical indicators impacting the USD/CAD movement:
#### Bullish Factors
– **200-Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average)** remains upward sloping, offering dynamic support near the 1.3560–1.3600 range.
– The pair remains above the 55-day EMA, reinforcing medium-term bullish sentiment.
– Repeated defense of the 1.3600 area suggests strong buying interest on dips.
– Momentum oscillators like the RSI and MACD remain ambivalent but lean slightly towards bullishness, signaling room for further gains in case of a breakout.
#### Key Resistance Levels
– **1.3799–1.3800 Area**: A critical psychological and technical level; a daily or weekly close above this region could open doors for further upside.
– **1.3845**: A strong resistance level from prior highs. A breakout above this level may encourage bullish continuation.
– **1.3898**: Represents the upper boundary of a long-term rising trend channel.
– **1.3976**: A major peak reached earlier in 2023. Breaching this level would strongly validate bullish continuation.
#### Key Support Zones
– **1.3639** (last week’s low): Key intermediate support; a decisive break here may shift the tone short-term.
– **1.3494** (May low): Important structural support in case of a deeper correction.
– **1.3370**: Functions as a lower threshold of the medium-term range. A breakdown below this level would spell trend reversal concerns.
#### Technical Outlook Summary
– Short-term bias in USD/CAD remains neutral to slightly bullish.
– A decisive breach of 1.3845 is necessary for the market to retest the 2023 highs near 1.3976.
– On the downside, breaking below 1.3639 and subsequently 1.3494 would raise reversal concerns and open the door for a deeper retracement.
– For now, the broader trend remains supported, keeping USD/CAD in a buy-on-dip mode unless key supports are compromised.
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### Fibonacci and Pattern Analysis
An additional insight can be gained by analyzing Fibonacci retracements and recent price formations:
– The retracement from 1.3176 (2023 low) to 1.3976 (2023 high) pinpoints the 61.8% level at approximately 1.3494, further underlining its importance as a structural support level.
– Buying interest near this retracement level has been consistent, reinforcing the notion that medium-term bulls are active.
– Chart formations suggest the existence of an ascending channel since mid-2023. As long as price remains within this channel, the
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