**AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis and Forecast – 18 November 2025**
*Based on analysis by Christopher Lewis, with additional insights from recent market developments*
The AUD/USD currency pair remains a focal point for many traders, given its importance in reflecting shifts in global risk appetite and commodity-driven economies. As of November 18th, 2025, price action, technical signals, and macroeconomic backdrop all play pivotal roles in shaping the currency’s direction. Below is an in-depth look at the current situation, relevant chart patterns, trading opportunities, and strategic considerations for trading the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar.
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### **Key Factors Influencing AUD/USD Movement**
#### **Global Sentiment and Risk Appetite**
– The Australian Dollar typically strengthens amid improving risk sentiment, reflecting its ties to global trade and commodities.
– Deterioration in global equity markets or poor economic data from China can exert downward pressure.
– US Dollar moves are still heavily influenced by Federal Reserve communication and expectations of future interest rate policies.
#### **Commodities Influence**
– Australia’s strong export profile, especially in iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas, means commodity price changes directly impact the AUD.
– Rising commodity prices can buoy the currency, while declines may result in a bearish trend.
#### **Interest Rate Differential**
– Rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) drive smart money flow.
– A higher Australian policy rate relative to the US supports AUD, and vice versa.
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### **Current Technical Overview for AUD/USD**
#### **Trend Analysis**
– Following a choppy start to the fourth quarter, AUD/USD sustained a modest recovery from recent lows near the 0.6380 region.
– The pair trades within a well-defined range in the short-term, with neither buyers nor sellers establishing a definitive longer-term trend yet.
– Price action shows a series of higher lows since late October, signaling underlying buying interest.
#### **Support and Resistance Levels**
– Immediate resistance appears around the 0.6500 handle, an area repeatedly challenged but not conclusively broken.
– Key support is seen just above the 0.6400 region, coinciding with the consolidation range evident on the daily chart.
– The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) hovers in the mid-0.6450s, acting as a dynamic support/resistance marker.
##### Bullet list of notable levels:
– Resistance: 0.6475, 0.6500, 0.6535
– Support: 0.6420, 0.6380, 0.6350
#### **Chart Patterns and Momentum Indicators**
– Technical surveys point to a possible ascending triangle forming on the four-hour chart, hinting at a bullish breakout if the 0.6500 level is cleared with conviction.
– Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings trend near 55 on daily timeframes, suggesting room for further
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