EUR/USD Forex Signal Forecast – November 18, 2025
Source: Original article by Christopher Lewis, DailyForex.com
The EUR/USD currency pair has shown resilience over the past few trading sessions, consolidating after a recent rally and currently hovering just below a key resistance level. As market participants weigh fundamental data and technical patterns, there is growing speculation about whether the currency pair can break to new short-term highs or if it is due for a correction. In this technical analysis, we take a closer look at the recent price action, potential support and resistance zones, and trading strategies for the EUR/USD pair going into Tuesday, November 18, 2025.
Recent Market Overview
For the past several trading days, the EUR/USD pair has staged a modest recovery as the U.S. dollar weakened slightly amid mixed economic data from the United States. Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory have remained a central theme affecting price direction. Last week, lower-than-anticipated U.S. inflation readings prompted speculation that the Federal Reserve might pivot away from its current tightening stance sooner than previously expected.
In contrast, policymakers from the European Central Bank (ECB) have adopted a cautious tone, emphasizing continued vigilance against inflation, which has not retreated as quickly across the eurozone. This fundamental divergence in monetary policy stances has led to notable intraday volatility across the EUR/USD pair.
The daily chart for EUR/USD shows a steady rise off the recent lows near 1.0600, and the market is now consolidating around the 1.0900 level. With the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) pausing below the 105.00 threshold, forex traders are assessing whether the greenback has more room to retract — providing space for further gains in EUR/USD.
Current Technical Landscape
The chart for EUR/USD reveals that the currency pair is trading just under a significant resistance level at 1.0900, with technical indicators pointing to short-term indecision. Key technical features to consider:
– Price has respected the 50-day EMA, which has now flattened, indicating a loss of bearish momentum.
– The 200-day EMA is acting as near-term support around the 1.0735 level.
– RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the 4-hour and daily timeframes hovers around 60, suggesting neutral to moderately bullish momentum.
– MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) shows declining histogram bars, reflecting the slowing upside momentum.
Bullish Factors Supporting the Euro
Several supportive factors contribute to the euro’s recent price strength, including favorable risk sentiment and repositioning by institutional traders. Investors are also reacting to slowing U.S. inflation data and looking ahead to potential changes in U.S. monetary policy.
Key bullish elements include:
– The softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report for October diminished the likelihood of an additional Fed rate hike before the end of 2025.
– ECB’s commitment to fighting inflation remains firm, with policymakers keeping a tighter tone compared to the Fed.
– European PMI data has shown signs of stabilization, adding a positive backdrop to the eurozone’s macro environment.
– Positioning data from the CFTC shows a decline in net short euro positions, indicating a gradual shift in sentiment by large speculators.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
Resistance Levels:
– 1.0900: Major psychological level and horizontal resistance. The pair has tested this level multiple times over the past few sessions but failed to break convincingly above.
– 1.0950: A breakout level from early October that was previously rejected.
– 1.1000: Round number resistance and a key psychological mark. Breaking above this zone would represent significant bullish momentum.
Support Levels:
– 1.0735: The area surrounding the 200-day EMA, identified as strong technical support.
– 1.0650: Minor swing low formed earlier in November, acting as short-term support.
– 1.0600: Double bottom
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