Title: Weekly Forex Forecast for November 24–28, 2025: Key Levels for DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and XAU/USD
Original Analysis by Justin Bennett
Rewritten and Expanded by [Your Name]
As we approach the trading week beginning November 24, 2025, several forex pairs and commodities present critical levels that traders should monitor. This weekly forex forecast covers the performance and future outlook for key assets including the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and gold (XAU/USD). With market sentiment shifting amid central bank policy expectations, inflation data, and escalating geopolitical risks, it’s vital that traders are aligned with price action to take advantage of tradable setups.
This forecast is based on technical price action and longer-term trend assessments, originally analyzed by Justin Bennett of Daily Price Action and further expanded for context and deeper insight.
Overview of Key Themes:
– U.S. Dollar Feels Pressure as Market Eyes Fed’s Policy Pivot
– EUR/USD Attempts to Break from Multi-Month Downtrend
– GBP/USD Faces Resistance Amid Domestic Political Friction
– USD/CAD Reacts to Oil Market Volatility
– XAU/USD (Gold) Maintains Bullish Momentum Above Support Levels
Let’s explore each pair and commodity in depth.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, has been pressured in recent weeks due to Federal Reserve commentary suggesting a potential softening in interest rate policy in 2026. Market participants increasingly believe that the Fed may cut rates in the second half of 2025, which has triggered a wave of dollar selling across major pairs.
Technical outlook for DXY:
– Last week’s close: 103.68
– Key resistance: 104.70
– Key support: 103.30 and 102.50
Price action notes:
– The DXY remains within a descending channel stretching back to early October 2025.
– A break below 103.30 could retest the psychological 102.50 support area, where renewed buying pressure may resurface.
– Strong resistance remains at 104.70, a former support turned resistance toughened by the 50-day moving average (currently around 104.80).
– If the index reclaims this area, it may pave the way for a test at the channel top near 105.40.
Fundamental influences:
– Market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s future policy stance are weighing on the dollar.
– Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data (especially CPI and retail sales) has led traders to anticipate a pause or pivot in monetary tightening.
– Geopolitical risks and global recession concerns may offer support to the dollar given its safe-haven status, but that has yet to override dovish Fed sentiment.
EUR/USD Forecast
EUR/USD has had a bullish surge off its October lows, supported by a weaker dollar and relative optimism within the Eurozone regarding economic stabilization.
Technical outlook for EUR/USD:
– Last week’s close: 1.0935
– Key resistance: 1.1000
– Key support: 1.0870 and 1.0830
Price action notes:
– The pair recently broke above the descending trendline drawn from its July 2025 highs.
– The breakout above 1.0870 marked a technical reversal, suggesting significant upside potential.
– As long as price is trading above 1.0870 (now turned support), a retest of 1.1000 appears likely.
– Additional resistance could be found at 1.1040, near the 200-day moving average.
Fundamental considerations:
– The European Central Bank (ECB) has remained cautious but less dovish than the Fed, which supports EUR strength.
– Stabilization in services PMI and improved German economic sentiment
Read more on USD/CAD trading.