Title: Weekly Technical Outlook for USD/CAD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin, and Equities – Week of November 24, 2025
Original article by Matt Weller, FOREX.com
Rewritten and expanded by AI Assistant
As the financial markets close in on the final weeks of 2025, a complex blend of economic factors, technical patterns, and geopolitical events are driving major decisions for investors and traders. This weekly technical outlook provides a detailed analysis of several key assets: the US Dollar, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin, and major global equity indices. With macroeconomic risks like inflation, central bank policy signals, and geopolitical shifts keeping markets volatile, technical analysis continues to serve as an essential guide for anticipating price movements.
The original analysis by Matt Weller from FOREX.com outlines the major developments and technical setups across these markets. We will now expand on that analysis to deepen your understanding of where key assets are headed.
US Dollar Index (DXY): Testing Vital Resistance
The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the USD relative to a basket of major currencies, remains at a crucial juncture technically.
Key Technical Factors:
– After retreating from its yearly high in early October, the DXY consolidated between 104.50 and 106.00.
– The index moved upward again in mid-November, testing the upper boundary of its consolidation range.
– Resistance near 106.00 has held firm the past few weeks, with selling pressure increasing at these levels.
– The weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) sits near neutral territory around 50, suggesting momentum could shift in either direction.
Outlook:
– A break above 106.00 could reaccelerate bullish momentum, potentially targeting the October 2025 high near 107.35.
– On the downside, failure to break this resistance zone could trigger a pullback toward 104.50 or even 103.50.
Fundamental Drivers:
– The USD is supported by stabilizing Treasury yields and a resilient US labor market.
– However, speculation over Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026 injects bearish risk to the outlook.
USD/CAD: Bulls Eye a Break Above Consolidation
The outlook for USD/CAD is tilting increasingly bullish within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a potential breakout.
Technical Summary:
– For the last six weeks, USD/CAD has been trapped in a tight range between 1.36 and 1.39, forming a triangle consolidation on the daily chart.
– Price is now pressing against descending resistance from the pattern, indicating building bullish pressure.
– The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) has provided consistent support on dips, another supportive technical indicator.
Key Resistance and Support Levels:
– Resistance: 1.3900 (trendline resistance), followed by 1.3975 (August high)
– Support: 1.3700 (mid-range level), 1.3620 (200-day SMA), then 1.3490 (October low)
Momentum:
– The MACD histogram is crossing back into positive territory, with bullish divergence forming on the hourly charts.
– Short-term RSI on the 4-hour chart is approaching overbought conditions, suggesting a potential pause before a breakout.
Fundamentals to Watch:
– Canadian CPI data due this week may weigh on the loonie if inflation shows further moderation.
– Meanwhile, the price of crude oil (a key Canadian export) has been softer, dampening CAD’s strength.
– The Bank of Canada remains cautious amid softer economic data, while the Fed is keeping a tighter bias, favoring USD strength.
USD/JPY: Intervention Watch Intensifies Above 150
The USD/JPY pair is drawing increasing scrutiny as it trades above 150, a level that has triggered official Japanese intervention in the past.
Technical Landscape:
– The pair found strong bullish momentum from mid-October, rallying back to the 150-152 region.
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.