EUR/USD Price Analysis – Chart of the Day (November 25, 2025)
Original Article by XTB Market Analysis Team
As we approach the final trading week of November 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to attract investor attention due to its steady climb over the past few sessions. The pair, which measures the value of the euro against the US dollar, is closely monitored by traders, economists, and policymakers due to its significant role in global financial markets. This piece provides a comprehensive analysis of the EUR/USD market trend, technical levels, and potential scenarios moving forward.
The original “Chart of the Day” analysis was published by XTB and authored by their Market Analysis Team. What follows is a detailed rewrite and expansion of that original insight with added context and technical depth.
Overview of the Recent EUR/USD Rally
– EUR/USD has been in an upward trend for the past several sessions.
– The rally has been driven by softening US macroeconomic data and speculation of a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve.
– US yields have declined significantly over recent weeks, further pressuring the US dollar.
– Meanwhile, eurozone data has remained relatively stable, supporting expectations that the ECB may keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period.
– As of November 25, 2025, EUR/USD was displaying strong bullish momentum, closing the week in a favorable technical posture.
Key Drivers Behind the Move
1. Weakening US Macroeconomic Indicators
Several signs of slowing economic activity in the United States have weighed on the dollar, making the euro comparatively more attractive:
– US manufacturing PMIs have fallen below the 50 expansion/contraction threshold.
– Retail sales data has softened, indicating weakening consumer confidence.
– The latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed job creation slowing to levels last seen before the Fed began its tightening cycle.
– Consumer Price Index (CPI) data suggests inflationary pressures are easing, which aligns with market expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve in future meetings.
2. Easing of US Treasury Yields
The market has begun pricing in potential rate cuts in the second half of 2026, causing yields on both the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury notes to decline:
– 2-year yield dropped below 4.20 percent for the first time since Q2 2025.
– 10-year Treasury yield also lost ground, falling below 4.35 percent.
– Declining yields reduce the attractiveness of holding US assets relative to foreign currencies, particularly the euro.
3. Euro Area Fundamentals Holding Steady
While the Eurozone economy faces its own challenges, recent data has provided some resilience:
– German manufacturing output showed minor improvements compared to prior months.
– Services sector remains stable in France and Spain, offsetting declines in Italy’s industrial sector.
– The ECB signaled a “higher for longer” interest rate stance, which has deterred aggressive shorting of the euro.
4. Improved Euro Sentiment
Investor sentiment has turned in favor of the euro in recent weeks:
– EUR/USD net long positions have risen in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report.
– Demand for euro-denominated debt remains strong, indicating market trust in the single currency.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Chart Patterns
An in-depth examination of the EUR/USD daily chart reveals several critical technical features. The pair has successfully broken above key resistance levels, suggesting further upside may lie ahead.
1. Moving Averages Acting as Support
– EUR/USD is trading comfortably above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
– The 200-day EMA is located around 1.0750 and is acting as a major support level.
– The bullish alignment of short and long-term MAs reinforces the strength of recent upward momentum.
2. Fibonacci Retracement Zones
– Retracement of the late Q3
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