Title: In-Depth Technical and Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD – November 25, 2025
By XTB Market Analysis Team – Rewritten and Expanded by [Your Name]
EUR/USD continues to attract attention as market participants assess both technical patterns and macroeconomic developments. As of November 25, 2025, the currency pair has shown signs of potential short-term weakness amid growing global economic uncertainty and expectations around monetary policy. This analysis, adapted and expanded from an original article by the XTB Market Analysis Team, provides a detailed breakdown of the current price structure, technical indicators, and fundamental outlook shaping the EUR/USD pair.
Overview of Current EUR/USD Conditions
As the end of 2025 approaches, the EUR/USD currency pair trades near the 1.0910 level, displaying resilience following recent pressure from hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials. Although market sentiment had previously leaned toward a more dovish outlook for the Fed, stronger-than-expected U.S. data has pushed traders to reconsider the central bank’s stance. At the same time, weakening economic indicators from the Eurozone are beginning to weigh on the euro.
Key Catalysts Driving Short-Term Movements
Several macroeconomic and policy-related factors are playing significant roles in influencing EUR/USD direction. These include:
– Renewed hawkish communication from the Federal Reserve, causing markets to scale back expectations of rate cuts in early 2026.
– Moderating inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, suggesting the ECB may hesitate to tighten policy further.
– Divergences in growth expectations between the U.S. and the Eurozone.
– Volatility in bond markets, especially the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields relative to European equivalents.
Technical Analysis: Price Action and Chart Patterns
The EUR/USD daily chart provides critical insights into the currency’s potential direction. Below is a breakdown of key technical elements shaping the pair’s performance:
1. Rising Wedge Breakdown:
– In late October 2025, EUR/USD formed a clear rising wedge pattern between support near 1.0500 and resistance around 1.0950.
– The price attempted a breakout above the wedge’s upper boundary just above 1.0950 in the second week of November but failed to sustain the move.
– A subsequent rejection near mid-November led to bearish momentum, signaling a potential downside correction.
2. Key Support Zone at 1.0880:
– After failing to sustain a breakout, EUR/USD reversed and is currently testing the 1.0880–1.0900 area, which serves as immediate technical support.
– This zone coincides with former resistance from October’s recovery and aligns with the 50-day moving average, offering confluence for potential buyers.
3. Fibonacci Levels and Correction Signals:
– A Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from early October (near 1.0450) to the recent highs around 1.0950 indicates a 38.2% support level near the 1.0750 region.
– This provides a potential downside target if the current correction deepens.
4. Momentum Indicators:
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from overbought levels and sits around 52, showing neutral-to-bearish momentum as of November 25.
– Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a possible bearish cross, suggesting weakening upside momentum and risk of further pullbacks.
5. Moving Averages:
– The pair remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), a positive long-term signal.
– However, short-term moving averages (21-day and 50-day) are beginning to flatten, implying potential for sideways consolidation or a minor pullback.
Overall Technical Bias
While technical indicators suggest the pair still trades above key support levels, the failure to break out of the rising wedge pattern introduces short-term bearish pressure. This could lead to a retracement toward lower support zones, particularly if macroeconomic data continues to favor stronger U.S
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