Title: Mid-Day Technical Outlook on USD/JPY – Action Forex Analysis Expanded
Source: Adapted and expanded from “USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook” by ActionForex.com (Original Author: Action Forex Team)
Link to Original: https://www.actionforex.com/technical-outlook/usdjpy-outlook/624604-usd-jpy-mid-day-outlook-2226/
Overview
The USD/JPY pair continues to be a focal point in the forex market, exhibiting a cautious upward bias in the mid-term outlook. Even with moderate intraday fluctuations, underlying technical indicators suggest steady support for the US dollar against the Japanese yen. Traders closely watching this pair anticipate further developments that could influence trajectory, notably from both Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy stances.
Mid-Day Price Movement Summary
As of the current trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair is demonstrating a restrained rally above a key technical support level. The general direction remains tilted in favor of the US dollar, although momentum is somewhat limited. The reaction around the 155.40 level has generated interest, particularly as traders assess whether this rise will endure or falter near resistance zones.
Key Price Levels
– Support (Immediate): 154.53
– Resistance (Immediate): 156.77
– High (Previous): 160.20
– Low (Previous): 151.86
Trend Direction and Market Sentiment
While the pair isn’t undergoing a dramatic breakout, it is still holding within a mild bullish trend. The market seems tentative but not bearish. Any downside movements are proving to be shallow, lacking the conviction needed to reverse the upward structure seen during the past several weeks.
Upside Momentum Factors
– Strong US macroeconomic data suggesting resilience in the economy
– Divergence between hawkish Federal Reserve comments and the Bank of Japan’s continued dovish stance
– Positive risk sentiment boosting demand for USD in a yield-seeking environment
Downside Pressure Concerns
– Technical overbought signals on higher timeframes
– Verbal interventions by Japanese officials aimed at curbing JPY weakness
– Rising global geopolitical concerns that might shift sentiment toward risk-off
Technical Indicators & Daily Chart Outlook
The analysis of daily timeframes shows that USD/JPY has managed to stabilize its rise following a short-term correction. The pullback was quickly cushioned by the support zone around 154.53, suggesting a firm bull market baseline.
– RSI (Relative Strength Index): Rebounded slightly from neutral territory, pointing towards emerging bullish momentum without entering the overbought zone
– MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Signals remain positive on the daily chart with the MACD line above the signal line, although the gap is narrow
– 10-day Moving Average: Currently acting as dynamic intraday support
– Bollinger Bands: Outer compression on the upper band suggests potential for expansion if price closes consistently above 156.00
At present, a sustained break above the 156.77 resistance would likely resume the broader upward trend previously seen, targeting the previous multi-decade high at 160.20. However, failure to break past this resistance could call for further consolidation or minor correction.
Intraday Outlook
On lower timeframes like the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, recovery is proceeding cautiously. Price movements remain confined between the 154.53–156.77 range, forming a potential base for continuation of the uptrend. For traders seeking intraday setups, the range-bound nature offers opportunities dependent on breakout confirmations.
Bullish Targets (Upon Break of Resistance)
– 157.50: Psychological level, also serves as initial resistance after recent caps
– 160.20: Multiyear high reached previously, strong technical milestone for bulls
– 161.50: Potential Fibo extension aligns near this level marking further uptrend continuation
Bearish Scenarios (Upon Break of Support)
– Reversal below 154.53 would suggest a deeper short
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.