USD/CAD Forecast: February 10, 2026
Based on the original analysis by Christopher Lewis for DailyForex.com
The USD/CAD currency pair displayed significant movement during the trading session on February 9, 2026, as traders reacted to a combination of technical factors and macroeconomic influences. The pair initially attempted to rally but encountered resistance, ultimately pulling back slightly by the end of the day. This behavior reflects broader uncertainty in the forex markets, particularly surrounding oil prices, interest rate expectations, and broader risk sentiment.
This article will explore:
– Recent performance of USD/CAD
– Technical analysis
– Influential economic indicators
– Correlations with commodity markets
– Central bank outlooks
– Forecast and key levels to watch
Market Overview and Recent Movement
USD/CAD attempted to recover early during the February 9 session but found the area above 1.35 to be a significant point of resistance. The pair briefly tested levels near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but failed to break above convincingly.
Key Observations:
– Price Action: Short-term rallies have been sold into, indicating bearish pressure.
– Resistance Level: The 1.35 region continues to act as a psychological and technical ceiling.
– Moving Averages: The 50-day EMA is providing immediate resistance at around 1.3470, while the 200-day EMA hovers just below the 1.35 level.
Technical Analysis of USD/CAD
USD/CAD is currently displaying a range-bound pattern, marked by a slightly downward bias amid failed attempts to break higher. Technical indicators suggest consolidation in the short term, but bearish momentum might dominate if the price continues to be rejected at key resistance zones.
Support and Resistance Levels:
– Immediate Resistance: 1.3500 to 1.3520 zone around the 200-day EMA
– Secondary Resistance: 1.3565, a previous swing high and potential double-top area
– Nearby Support: 1.3350, followed by a more significant level near 1.3300
– Major Support: 1.3200, which has historically acted as a strong demand zone
Momentum Indicators:
– RSI (Relative Strength Index) is hovering near 50, indicating a lack of a strong trend.
– MACD shows a flattening histogram, suggesting consolidation and indecisiveness.
– Bollinger Bands are starting to tighten, hinting at potential for a breakout or breakdown.
USD/CAD is currently stuck between two key EMAs. A clear push above 1.3520 could indicate renewed bullish strength, especially if followed by a daily close above 1.3550.
Macroeconomic Influences on the USD/CAD Pair
The U.S. and Canadian economies both released significant data earlier this month that continues to influence the exchange rate.
Factors Affecting the U.S. Dollar:
– Favorable U.S. data supports potential for Fed tightening or delaying rate cuts.
– January Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded expectations (353,000 jobs added), showing ongoing strength in the labor market.
– CPI inflation readings remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, suggesting persistent price pressures.
Factors Affecting the Canadian Dollar:
– Canadian employment growth remains solid but mixed by sector.
– January’s inflation rate ticked lower, potentially allowing the Bank of Canada (BoC) to consider easing monetary conditions earlier than the Fed.
– The Canadian economy continues to struggle with weak GDP growth (+0.2% forecast for Q1), largely due to a slowdown in the housing and retail sectors.
Oil Prices and Their Impact on CAD
Oil remains the most influential commodity driver for the Canadian dollar. Because Canada is a net exporter of oil, the loonie tends to move in correlation with crude oil prices.
Recent Oil Market Highlights:
– WTI crude oil continues to oscillate between $72 and $78 per barrel.
– Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including recent sk
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