**AUD/USD Price Outlook: Further Gains Likely as Pair Advances Beyond 20-Day EMA**
*Based on the analysis by Felipe Erazo for FXStreet, as well as additional insights from current forex trends.*
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## Overview
The Australian dollar (AUD) has recently demonstrated renewed strength against the US dollar (USD), pushing the AUD/USD currency pair above a notable technical barrier: the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This movement represents a significant bullish signal and could set the pair up for further appreciation, provided supporting macroeconomic conditions persist. This article provides an in-depth outlook on the AUD/USD market, expands on underlying drivers, and integrates insights from other experts to offer a comprehensive view of the currency pair’s future direction.
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## 1. Recent Technical Performance of AUD/USD
– **20-Day EMA Breakout**: The AUD/USD pair has moved decisively above the 20-day EMA, a signal that often precedes extended bullish runs in the currency markets.
– **Short-Term Bullish Reversal**: A clear reversal pattern has emerged on the daily chart, indicating that sellers have lost momentum, potentially leading to an upward trend.
– **Relative Strength Index (RSI) Support**: The daily RSI supports recent bullish moves, trending upwards without entering overbought territory. This suggests more room for upside before correction pressures build.
– **Price Action Patterns**: Recent candlesticks have reflected demand at lower levels, showing little desire among traders to push the pair back below the 20-day EMA.
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## 2. Fundamental Catalysts Driving the Movement
### Australian Macro Data
– **Inflationary Pressure**: Australia reports that inflation remains above the target range, increasing the odds that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could maintain or even tighten monetary policy.
– **Strong Labor Market**: Unemployment data shows resilience, with job creation continuing apace, lending further support to the AUD.
### United States Economic Context
– **Mixed US Data**: Recent releases from the US have painted a less consistent picture. While non-farm payrolls remain strong, inflation shows signs of cooling, which reduces the likelihood of further immediate rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
– **Federal Reserve Policy Outlook**: The market now anticipates a more dovish Fed posture, weakening the USD against risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD.
### External Influences
– **Commodity Prices**: Australia is a key global exporter of commodities such as iron ore and coal. Current demand for these resources, particularly from China, bolsters the Australian economy and underpins AUD strength.
– **Risk Sentiment**: Global risk appetite remains elevated, typically supporting risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD while leading to some safe-haven unwinding for the USD.
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## 3. Key Technical Levels to Watch
### Immediate Support and Resistance
– **First Key Support**: The 20-day EMA, currently near the 0.6640 zone. A daily close
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