**AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, and NZD/USD: Current Price Action Setups and Technical Analysis**
*By James Stanley – adapted and expanded from content originally published on Forex.com*
The South Pacific currencies, particularly the Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD), have experienced significant volatility in early 2024. Shaped by major developments in US monetary policy, local economic data, and wider risk sentiment, the AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, and NZD/USD currency pairs are in focus for active forex traders. This article analyzes recent price action and technical setups across these pairs. Additional context is taken from sources including DailyFX and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
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**Global Context: The Macro Drivers Behind AUD and NZD Moves**
– Both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have taken somewhat cautious stances relative to the US Federal Reserve, which has led to notable divergences in bond yields.
– US economic data has remained resilient, with labor market strength and inflation prints wrong-footing expectations for aggressive rate cuts. This has supported the US Dollar broadly.
– Conversely, softer Chinese growth figures have weighed heavily on both the AUD and NZD, as both economies are major exporters to China.
– Commodity prices, especially iron ore (for Australia) and dairy (for New Zealand), continue to drive sentiment in both currencies.
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**AUD/USD: Choppy Price Action Amid Dollar Dominance**
The AUD/USD pair has seen a struggle to maintain sustained momentum in either direction. Over recent months, it has attempted recoveries but has found significant resistance.
**Current Technical Setup:**
– AUD/USD hovered around the 0.6590 region at the start of June, after attempting and failing to stage a breakout above 0.6700 in May.
– The daily chart shows a clear range between approximately 0.6500 (support) and 0.6700 (resistance).
– The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is acting as dynamic resistance near the upper bound of this range.
– RSI momentum indicators have not flashed extended overbought or oversold conditions, pointing to a consolidative mood rather than a trending one.
**Key Levels:**
– Resistance: 0.6685 to 0.6700 (recent swing highs, 200-day SMA)
– Support: 0.6550 to 0.6500 (multiple tests since March, bottom of current range)
– If breakdown occurs below 0.6500, focus turns to 0.6450 and then potentially 0.6380 (2024 lows so far).
**Fundamental Forces to Watch:**
– Upcoming US CPI and Fed decisions are potential catalysts for sharp moves.
– Australia’s labor data and inflation readings could revive RBA hawkish expectations if hotter than forecast.
– Any stability or bounce in Chinese economic data is likely to underpin AUD in the medium-term.
Read more on AUD/USD trading.