Weekly Forex Forecast (30 November – 5 December 2025)
Adapted and expanded from the original article by Martin Essex, MSTA of DailyForex.com
This weekly Forex forecast covers market expectations and technical outlooks for key currency pairs ahead of the week starting 30 November 2025. Drawing insights from fundamental themes, geopolitical developments, and technical analysis, traders can assess potential price movements and consider possible strategies. With central bank policies, inflation data, employment reports, and risk sentiment shaping the trading landscape, this forecast deepens the analysis and expands on possible developments throughout the week.
Key Themes to Watch This Week:
– Central bank interest rate positioning, especially from the Fed and ECB
– US labor market reports including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
– Final Manufacturing and Services PMI figures for major economies
– Geopolitical tensions and how they may influence risk appetite
– The direction of the US Dollar following last week’s volatility
– Commodity price fluctuations impacting commodity-linked currencies
Let’s take a closer look at the major currency pairs and what can be expected in the coming trading days.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook and Fundamental Insights
The euro remained in consolidation against the US dollar last week, with minor bullish momentum carrying the pair above the 1.0900 level. Traders are increasingly cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank’s monetary policy direction. While markets are not anticipating any changes in the ECB’s policy rate soon, commentary from ECB officials will be closely monitored for indications of when rate cuts might begin in 2026.
Key Drivers for EUR/USD:
– The US dollar’s general strength or weakness, tied to upcoming NFP data and Federal Reserve commentary
– German and Eurozone inflation numbers due mid-week
– Market sentiment toward global risk, which tends to influence EUR/USD as a pro-risk currency pair
– Any dovish or hawkish messaging from either the Fed or ECB
Technical Overview:
– Support: 1.0835 and 1.0785
– Resistance: 1.0980 and 1.1050
– As long as the pair holds above 1.0835, a gradual rally toward the 1.1000 psychological level remains possible.
– A firm break below 1.0785 would negate the short-term bullish bias.
GBP/USD Price Action and Market Sentiment
The British pound turned slightly higher last week but paused below the key 1.2700 resistance level. The market is largely waiting on key macroeconomic data releases, with UK Manufacturing and Services PMI due, as well as US labor market data influencing dollar strength. The Bank of England has been relatively hawkish in tone, and inflation in the UK remains among the highest in the G7, giving the BoE reason to postpone any dovish policy shift.
Key Influences on GBP/USD:
– BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s upcoming speech, which traders hope will provide clarity on future policy
– Final UK PMI figures which could offer clues about economic resilience
– Sensitivity to overall US dollar performance and risk appetite
– Brexit-related political discussions, although they’ve taken a backseat recently
Key Technical Levels:
– Support: 1.2540 and 1.2460
– Resistance: 1.2700 and 1.2785
– Sustaining a move above 1.2700 could trigger a fresh leg upward toward 1.2800.
– Failure to stay above 1.2540 signals further downside amid lack of strong UK economic data.
USD/JPY: Primed for Range Trading
The Japanese yen strengthened slightly against the greenback last week as US Treasury yields pulled back. Traders continue to eye the Bank of Japan’s relatively dovish stance, but there is growing speculation that the BoJ may consider tighter policy in 2026 if inflation persists. Until then, USD/JPY is heavily linked to US bond yield movements and global risk sentiment.
Market Factors Influencing USD/JPY:
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.