Weekly Forex Forecast (30 November – 5 December 2025)
Written by: Tom Cleveland, Senior Analyst at DailyForex
Original article sourced from DailyForex: [Weekly Forex Forecast 30th November to 5th December 2025](https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/11/weekly-forex-forecast-30th-11-to-05th-12-2025/237730)
Overview
The last week of November and the beginning of December presents an interesting setup across major forex pairs, as key economic indicators, geopolitical dynamics, and central bank policies create varying levels of volatility. The U.S. dollar remains at the forefront, buoyed by robust economic data, while the euro, pound, yen, and commodity-linked currencies continue to respond to diverse macroeconomic catalysts.
This forecast provides a detailed technical and fundamental analysis for major currency pairs, offering insights for traders preparing for potential market movements.
Key Market Highlights
– The U.S. Dollar strengthened due to solid data, including better-than-expected GDP growth and improving consumer confidence.
– The Euro continued to decline under pressure from weaker economic indicators and policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve.
– The British Pound showed signs of recovery, helped by improving domestic data and reduced political uncertainty.
– The Japanese Yen weakened further, driven by diverging monetary policy stances between the Bank of Japan and the Fed.
– Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars gained ground, partly supported by rising commodity prices and stable domestic conditions.
Currency Pair Outlooks
EUR/USD Forecast
The EUR/USD pair ended the week lower, continuing its multi-week bearish trend. The Euro has faced persistent headwinds from sluggish Eurozone growth figures, while inflation remains below the ECB’s 2% target.
Technical Analysis:
– The pair broke below the 1.0750 level, confirming strong downward momentum.
– Daily charts point to further downside toward the next support near 1.0600.
– RSI is below 40, indicating continued bearish sentiment.
– 50-day and 200-day EMAs are offering clear resistance, with the 50-day EMA at 1.0800.
Fundamental Factors:
– ECB policymakers remain dovish, signaling that rate cuts are unlikely in the immediate future but also avoiding hawkish commentary.
– Divergence with the Fed’s more proactive stance favors continued USD strength.
– Poor German and French PMI readings weighed on sentiment.
– Unless upcoming Eurozone inflation data surprises to the upside, downward pressure is likely to persist.
Strategy:
– Sell rallies toward the 1.0750 resistance zone.
– Consider placing stop-loss levels above 1.0780.
– Target support levels at 1.0600 and 1.0580 in the short term.
GBP/USD Forecast
The Pound gained slightly against the U.S. dollar, supported by stronger-than-expected UK economic releases. Consumer spending held firm, and improved export data provided further confidence in the domestic economic outlook.
Technical Analysis:
– GBP/USD held above the psychological 1.2500 level.
– A bullish breakout above 1.2630 would open the door toward 1.2750.
– RSI remains neutral around 50, suggesting potential for a move in either direction.
– The 200-day EMA near 1.2600 provides dynamic resistance.
Fundamental Factors:
– Bank of England (BOE) commentary leaned more hawkish than anticipated.
– UK inflation data remained elevated, reinforcing calls that rate cuts might be delayed.
– Reduced Brexit-related volatility continues to provide stability for the GBP.
Strategy:
– Watch for breakouts above 1.2630 to initiate long positions with targets of 1.2750.
– If price declines below 1.2500, consider short-term shorting opportunities toward 1.2400.
– Use tight stop-losses given the increased volatility around central bank announcements.
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.