Original article credit: FXStreet News Team
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-cftc-eur-nc-net-positions-up-to-eu990k-from-previous-eu918k-202512122134
Title: CFTC Euro Positioning Update: Euro Net Long Positions Climb, Indicating Renewed Bullish Outlook
As of the latest data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), speculative positions in the euro have increased significantly. For the week ending on December 10, 2025, non-commercial traders raised their net long positions in the euro currency futures market. According to the CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, euro net long positions climbed to 99,000 contracts, up from the previous level of 91,800. This shift suggests renewed optimism among traders regarding the euro’s prospects against the US dollar and possibly other major currencies.
This update in euro positioning reflects broader macroeconomic developments in the Eurozone, shifting market sentiment, and updated expectations regarding central bank policy from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve. Below is a detailed breakdown of the report and its implications for the forex and macroeconomic landscape.
Key Data From the CFTC Report:
– Date of reporting: Week ending December 10, 2025
– Instrument: Euro FX futures
– Group: Non-commercial traders (speculators, hedge funds, money managers)
– New net long positions: 99,000
– Previous net long positions: 91,800
– Weekly change: +7,200 contracts
Understanding Non-Commercial Euro Positions
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides data on trader positions in futures markets. Non-commercial traders are market participants who trade to speculate rather than to hedge exposure. Their positioning often serves as a proxy for investor sentiment and expectations. A move toward higher net long positions in the euro suggests that market participants are increasingly bullish on the common currency.
Factors Behind the Net Position Increase
Several economic and policy-related factors likely contributed to this increase in speculative euro holdings:
1. Eurozone Economic Resilience
– Recent economic data out of the Eurozone has shown signs of resilience.
– PMI indicators (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) for manufacturing and services have beaten market expectations.
– Although growth remains modest, the Eurozone economy has demonstrated stability following energy price shocks and geopolitical uncertainty common in 2025.
2. Shifts in ECB Policy Expectations
– Investors are modifying their rate expectations for the European Central Bank.
– The ECB’s stance has recently become slightly more hawkish after stabilizing inflation and improving economic data.
– Market participants now believe interest rate cuts in the early part of 2026 may come later than previously thought.
– The central bank has emphasized continued vigilance on inflation, supporting this expectation.
3. US Federal Reserve’s Dovish Outlook
– In contrast to the ECB, the Federal Reserve appears to be softening its tone.
– Inflation in the US has moderated, and recent projections show a higher likelihood of interest rate cuts in mid-2026.
– This divergence between the Fed and the ECB could support a stronger euro if the interest rate differentials between Europe and the US narrow.
4. Technical Support for EUR/USD
– Recent EUR/USD trading patterns have shown stronger support levels near 1.08 and bullish breakouts past 1.09.
– Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD have pointed toward bullish conditions, attracting technical traders into long euro positions.
5. Diminishing US Economic Surprise Indicators
– US economic surprise indices, which track whether data comes in above or below expectations, have declined in recent weeks.
– This decline suggests that US economic performance is no longer consistently beating forecasts, lowering the appeal of the dollar for investors.
Broader Market Context
CFTC euro positioning data should not be viewed in isolation
Read more on EUR/USD trading.