**AUD/USD and NZD/USD Test Support: Will There Be a Break or a Bounce?**
*Based on the article by ActionForex.com technical analysis team, with expanded insights and up-to-date context.*
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**Introduction**
As June 2024 trades enter a pivotal period, the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) are both challenging significant support levels against the US Dollar. The market focus is sharpened by speculation over central bank policy shifts, persistent inflationary pressures, and softer economic growth data from both Australia and New Zealand. In the backdrop, the US Dollar has benefited from a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve, reinforcing technical trends across major currency pairs.
This analysis explores the prevailing technical and fundamental dynamics at play, offers a detailed breakdown of support and resistance zones, provides context from recent economic reports, and weighs the likelihood of breakouts versus reversals for both AUD/USD and NZD/USD currency pairs.
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**AUD/USD: Technical Outlook**
**Current Technical Landscape**
– The Australian Dollar has been under amplified pressure, failing to sustain momentum above the 0.6700 mark following a retracement from May highs.
– Recent sessions saw AUD/USD test the crucial support area near 0.6570–0.6590, an inflection point that has repeatedly offered support since early February.
– The short-term trend is increasingly bearish, with price action sitting below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages on the daily chart.
– Relative strength index (RSI) is hovering around the 40 level, indicating weakening momentum but not yet in oversold territory.
**Key Levels to Watch**
– **Immediate Support:** 0.6570–0.6590
– **Next Major Support:** 0.6520 and then 0.6460
– **Short-Term Resistance:** 0.6630–0.6650
– **Major Resistance:** 0.6700–0.6720
A confirmed close below 0.6570 could pave the way for a move toward 0.6520 and potentially 0.6460, the latter being a level last tested in March 2024.
**Candlestick Patterns and Volume**
– Recent daily candles have shown consecutive lower highs with increasingly narrow real bodies, signifying diminishing bull participation.
– Volume has picked up on down sessions, suggesting that sellers are in control as the pair approaches key support.
**Fundamental Drivers for AUD/USD**
The AUD’s performance remains tightly linked to several intertwined economic and policy factors:
– **RBA Policy and Australian Data:**
– The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a data-dependent stance, recently pushing back expectations for early rate hikes due to mixed inflation and employment readings.
– Australia’s CPI released in May topped forecasts but did not materially change the RBA’s patient approach.
– **Chinese Economic Developments:**
– As Australia’s largest
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