**USD/CHF Wave Analysis – December 24, 2025**
*Based on the original analysis by FxPro News, with additional insights sourced from recent market reports and technical perspectives.*
## Overview of USD/CHF Technical Outlook
The USD/CHF pair exhibits noteworthy structural characteristics on its daily chart consistent with ongoing wave patterns. The pair has entered a phase characterized by mid-term bearish pressure, highlighting the significance of support and resistance levels in guiding price action as the new year approaches.
## Wave Pattern Analysis
### Elliott Wave Perspective
– The Elliott Wave framework reveals that USD/CHF has been forming a clear sequence of declining waves since its last significant high, with the structure progressing through identifiable impulsive and corrective phases.
– Recent movements suggest the development of a medium-term downward impulse wave, most likely the third leg of a five-wave decline (wave 3 or C, depending on higher-level context).
– The corrective rebound previously observed after the break below key support failed to consolidate above resistance, leading to renewed selling interest.
### Key Wave Structure Features
– The decline from the recent swing high aligns with the textbook properties of an impulsive wave: strong momentum, shallow retracements, and an absence of substantial consolidation.
– The follow-through below recent support confirms sellers’ intention to press the pair lower, with technical indicators (such as the Relative Strength Index and MACD) validating the downward momentum.
### Fibonacci and Price Levels
– The most recent impulse initiated after a rejection from the Fibonacci 50 percent retracement of the previous bearish move, further underscoring Fibonacci retracement levels as zones of increased activity.
– Notable Fibonacci targets for the ongoing impulse include the 161.8 percent extension, aligning closely with the next horizontal support visible on the daily timeframe.
## Fundamental Context
### Macroeconomic Background
– The US Dollar has recently experienced fluctuations due to shifting Federal Reserve communication regarding future interest rate trajectories, with expectations for rate cuts in 2025 influencing USD movement.
– The Swiss Franc retains its status as a relative safe haven, with the Swiss National Bank maintaining a cautious stance on rates and inflation. This, combined with an uncertain global risk environment, has supported CHF strength against the USD.
### Economic Calendar Considerations
– Near-term focus remains on key US data releases, including inflation reports and employment statistics, which could catalyze bouts of volatility.
## Trading Levels and Technical Setups
– **Immediate Resistance:** The previous consolidation zone around 0.8700 serves as a critical resistance. Any sustained move above this level could indicate a loss of bearish momentum.
– **Mid-term Support:** The area surrounding 0.8550 acts as a strong intermediate support, coinciding with both prior swing lows and a key Fibonacci projection zone.
– **Downside Projections:** Extension targets based on recent price swings suggest potential for a move toward the 0.8450 region if bearish pressure persists.
### Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators
– The 50-day
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